Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Data revisions from Wunderground post-resolution
Calibrated 100% · raw 110% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/29/2026, 3:15:44 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 23% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
10%
ORYN Consensus
11%
Signal Score
+1.1
Opportunity
0.9
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 110.0¢
Entry: 7-13
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
4
Price history
2 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market suggests a low probability (11%) that Lucknow's highest temperature on June 29, 2026, will reach 36°C. Historical climatology and seasonal trends indicate this is unlikely, given typical late-June temperatures in the region.
A bullish outcome could occur if an unexpected heatwave develops due to an anomalous high-pressure system or delayed monsoon onset, pushing temperatures above the 35°C threshold. Extreme weather patterns in recent years, such as 2023's record-breaking heat, could also support this scenario.
The bear case is stronger, as Lucknow's average daily high in late June is typically around 34-35°C, with 36°C being an outlier. A stronger-than-expected monsoon or cloud cover could suppress temperatures below the threshold, aligning with historical norms.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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