This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Key risk: Data revisions from Wunderground affecting resolution
AI updated 6/27/2026, 9:00:54 AM
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd Consensus
0%
ORYN Consensus
1%
Signal Score
+0.9
Opportunity
0.9
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The market probability for Lucknow reaching 44°C on June 27, 2026, is extremely low (0.05%), indicating minimal expectation of such extreme heat. Historical data and seasonal trends suggest this outcome is highly unlikely.
A bullish scenario could involve an unprecedented heatwave driven by climate anomalies, such as a strong high-pressure system or delayed monsoon onset, pushing temperatures to 44°C. Unusual atmospheric conditions or urban heat island effects might also contribute.
A bearish outcome is more probable, as June typically sees average highs around 38-40°C in Lucknow, with 44°C being an extreme outlier. No forecast models currently predict such temperatures, and past records rarely exceed 43°C.
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Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 44°C on June 27? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 0.1% while ORYN AI estimates 1%.
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