Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Station data gaps or late revisions before the next day's first datapoint could alter the recorded high
AI updated 7/3/2026, 4:46:25 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| omniroute | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 30% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
2%
ORYN Consensus
2%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Graph Relationships
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Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
3,505,203
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
MEDIUM
EV 200.0¢
Entry: 0-5
—
Resolution
20h
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
2 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market asks whether the daily high at Lucknow's Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport station will resolve exactly to 41°C on July 5, 2026, using Weather Underground's whole-degree daily history. The current 2.05% market price looks broadly reasonable because an exact-hit temperature contract on a single integer outcome is structurally low probability, though Lucknow's early July climatology makes low-40s plausible enough that zero would be too low.
Lucknow in early July is often very hot, and a daily maximum around 40-42°C is meteorologically plausible before or between monsoon cooling episodes. Because resolution is to the nearest whole degree Celsius, any underlying observed high that rounds or reports to exactly 41°C lands the contract, so a narrow but realistic slice of likely outcomes supports a nontrivial chance.
This is an exact-value market, not an over/under, so even if conditions are broadly hot the high could easily resolve to 39°C, 40°C, 42°C, or 43°C instead. Early July in north India can also see cloud cover, rainfall, and monsoon influence that suppress daytime highs, making the combination of weather variability plus exact-integer matching unfavorable for a yes outcome.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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