Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Current scraped Wunderground content shows no daily observations, limiting direct evidence from the cited source
Calibrated 100% · raw 795% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 7/3/2026, 3:31:10 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| omniroute | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 30% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
0%
ORYN Consensus
8%
Signal Score
+8.0
Opportunity
5.3
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
correlates · strength 60%
The Manifold daily active users market is effectively orthogonal to the Los Angeles temperature market: one depends on product/community growth, the other on local meteorology, with no credible causal overlap.
correlates · strength 60%
Putin leaving office by Dec. 31, 2026 is geopolitically connected to the Hormuz and crude oil markets through global risk and energy channels, but it is essentially unrelated to the Los Angeles temperature-range market except through negligible background macro effects.
correlates · strength 60%
Energy/geopolitical linkage is weak and mostly indirect: extreme Strait of Hormuz disruption could raise oil prices and, through broad macro effects, marginally affect aviation/shipping emissions or economic activity, but it has no meaningful short-horizon causal impact on Los Angeles daily temperature for July 2.
correlates · strength 60%
The two Strait of Hormuz markets are internally correlated with each other (traffic normalization by July 31 and 40 ships transiting on a day by June 30, 2026), but each has near-zero direct relationship to whether Los Angeles reaches 74-75°F on July 2.
correlates · strength 60%
The crude oil low-$60 market is related to the Hormuz traffic markets via supply-risk and shipping expectations; by contrast, its relationship to the Los Angeles temperature band market is only a very weak shared sensitivity to broad weather-driven energy demand narratives, not a practical forecasting link.
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
3,180,254
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 795.0¢
Entry: 0-3
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
3 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Los Angeles International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
This market requires the daily high at Los Angeles International Airport (KLAX) on July 2, 2026 to resolve at exactly 74°F or 75°F, using Wunderground's whole-degree daily history data. Given LAX's marine-moderated summer climate, that range is plausible but narrow, and the current 0.05% market probability appears far too low unless there is missing context from adjacent strike ranges.
LAX often records mild early-summer highs in the low-to-mid 70s because of persistent marine influence, making 74-75°F a climatologically realistic band. Since resolution is to whole degrees, any true daily high near the mid-74s would still round or record into this bucket, slightly improving the odds versus an exact continuous-temperature interpretation.
A 2-degree bucket is still a narrow target, and July 2 temperatures at LAX can easily land a few degrees cooler under a stronger marine layer or warmer under inland heat influence and afternoon clearing. The provided Wunderground page content currently shows no usable historical observations, so there is no direct station-specific evidence here to justify a high probability for this exact band.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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