Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Revisions to historical temperature data (Wunderground updates)
AI updated 6/28/2026, 10:00:28 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
26%
ORYN Consensus
26%
Signal Score
+0.5
Opportunity
0.4
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,075,184
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 50.0¢
Entry: 22-29
—
Resolution
1d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market indicates a 25.50% probability that London's highest temperature on June 30, 2026, will reach 24°C, based on historical weather data and current meteorological trends. The resolution source (Wunderground) provides precise, whole-degree Celsius measurements, ensuring accuracy in market resolution.
A bullish scenario for this market would involve unseasonably warm weather patterns, such as a prolonged high-pressure system over the UK or a tropical air mass pushing northward, leading to temperatures reaching or exceeding 24°C. Historical data shows occasional late-June heatwaves in London, with temperatures occasionally spiking to 25-30°C.
A bearish outcome would see cooler-than-average conditions, possibly due to persistent cloud cover, Atlantic low-pressure systems, or polar air masses, keeping temperatures below 24°C. London's average late-June high is around 20-22°C, with extreme heat being relatively rare in early summer.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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