Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: revisions to historical temperature data post-resolution
Calibrated 100% · raw 340% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/27/2026, 11:30:19 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
1%
ORYN Consensus
4%
Signal Score
+3.4
Opportunity
2.9
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 340.0¢
Entry: 0-4
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
11
Price history
13 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market assigns a 4.40% probability that London City Airport's highest temperature on June 29, 2026, will reach 27°C. Historical climatological data suggests this is an unlikely outcome given London's typical June temperatures.
A sustained high-pressure system over the UK could drive temperatures above the seasonal average. Unusual atmospheric conditions, such as a Saharan air intrusion or prolonged sunshine, may push readings toward 27°C. Late-season heatwaves in June are historically rare but not unprecedented.
London's June climate is typically mild, with average highs around 20-22°C. Persistent cloud cover, maritime influence, or unseasonably cool air masses would likely suppress temperatures below 27°C. Climate trends suggest no significant warming spike is expected for this date.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
Route to regulated venues when you are ready. ORYN never holds your funds.
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