Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: potential_revisions_to_temperature_data_post-resolution
AI updated 6/29/2026, 11:45:18 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
14%
ORYN Consensus
14%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,542,990
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 12-18
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market indicates a low probability (14.50%) that London's highest temperature on June 29, 2026, will reach 23°C. Historical climate data suggests this temperature is atypical for late June in London, which typically sees average highs around 20-22°C.
A bullish scenario could unfold if an exceptional heatwave affects the UK in late June 2026, driven by persistent high-pressure systems or Saharan air intrusions. Such anomalies have occurred in recent years (e.g., June 2019 heatwave), though they remain statistically rare. Unusually warm ocean currents or localized urban heat island effects could also elevate temperatures beyond seasonal norms.
The bearish case assumes typical late-June weather patterns, with London's highest temperature likely falling short of 23°C. Historical data from Wunderground and Met Office records show that temperatures at or above 23°C are infrequent in late June, with 2023's highest being 21.1°C. Cloud cover, maritime influence, or atypical rainfall could suppress temperatures further.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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