Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: No usable daily observation data is available yet on the provided Wunderground page
Calibrated 100% · raw 190% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 7/3/2026, 4:36:43 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| omniroute | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 29% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
1%
ORYN Consensus
3%
Signal Score
+1.9
Opportunity
1.3
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
correlates · strength 60%
Possible tiny common-factor linkage through global climate/background weather regime: a warmer global backdrop can modestly raise odds of a 33°C London high and also influence energy-demand narratives relevant to oil markets, but this does not materially connect to exact Strait traffic counts or political leadership outcomes.
correlates · strength 60%
Essentially no relationship with Manifold daily active users by Feb 14, 2024: platform DAU is a product/community metric with no common drivers with London weather in July, aside from trivial attention effects.
correlates · strength 60%
Mild positive linkage with crude oil downside: an exactly 33°C London day in early July is more plausible under stable Northern Hemisphere summer weather and lower acute geopolitical disruption; markets about Strait of Hormuz normalization and CL hitting $60 both partially load on reduced energy-shock risk, though the connection is weak and indirect.
correlates · strength 60%
Negative linkage with Hormuz traffic-disruption markets: severe Gulf shipping disruption can raise oil prices and coincide with broader abnormal circulation/heat narratives in media, but operational shipping counts in the Strait are fundamentally geopolitical/logistics variables, so relationship to a single London temperature print is very weak.
correlates · strength 60%
Little to no meaningful relationship with Putin leaving office by Dec 31, 2026: both can be affected by broad geopolitical stress, yet London’s exact daily high is driven mainly by local meteorology, making any correlation negligible.
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
3,163,435
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 190.0¢
Entry: 0-4
—
Resolution
2d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
2 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
This market asks whether the daily maximum at London City Airport on 2026-07-05 will round into exactly 33°C on Wunderground's whole-degree display, and the current 1.50% market price implies a very low-probability hot-tail outcome. The provided Wunderground page contains no historical daily observations yet, so the market must be assessed from climatology and event-structure rather than direct current readings.
A 33°C print in London is rare but plausible during a short-lived continental heat plume, especially if easterly or southerly flow aligns with strong July insolation and dry boundary-layer conditions. Because resolution uses a whole-degree Celsius daily maximum, any true observed peak in a narrow band around 33°C could still resolve to 33°C, which modestly helps the yes case.
For a single named temperature on a single day in London, base rates are low because most early-July days peak well below 33°C and extreme heat events are episodic rather than common. The market is also path-dependent: even if conditions are hot, the realized station maximum could easily land at 31°C, 32°C, 34°C, or higher, so the exact-hit requirement sharply reduces probability.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
Route to regulated venues when you are ready. ORYN never holds your funds.
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