Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Climate change may alter baseline temperature patterns
Calibrated 100% · raw 150% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/28/2026, 7:15:33 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
1%
ORYN Consensus
2%
Signal Score
+1.5
Opportunity
1.4
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,015,055
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 150.0¢
Entry: 0-3
—
Resolution
2d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
2 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Kuala Lumpur Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Kuala Lumpur Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/my/sepang-district/WMKK. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for Kuala Lumpur's highest temperature on June 30, 2026, at 25°C is highly unlikely, with a current probability of 0.50%. Historical and climatological trends suggest temperatures in this range are rare for the region during this period.
A bull case could involve an unusual weather anomaly, such as a cold snap or persistent cloud cover, leading to a lower-than-average daily high temperature. However, such events are statistically uncommon in Kuala Lumpur's tropical climate.
The bear case is dominant, as Kuala Lumpur's June temperatures typically range between 27°C and 33°C. A 25°C high would require exceptional conditions, such as a significant weather system or measurement error, neither of which aligns with historical trends.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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