This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Masroor Airbase Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Masroor Airbase Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pk/karachi/OPKC. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Key risk: Data revisions from Wunderground after initial publication
AI updated 6/27/2026, 7:45:33 PM
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Masroor Airbase Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Masroor Airbase Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pk/karachi/OPKC. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd Consensus
0%
ORYN Consensus
1%
Signal Score
+0.8
Opportunity
0.7
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The market predicts an extremely low (0.25%) probability that Karachi's highest temperature on June 28, 2026 will reach 30°C. Historical climatological data for Karachi in late June suggests this outcome is highly unlikely given typical temperature ranges.
A rare heatwave could push temperatures to 30°C, as Karachi occasionally experiences extreme heat events in late June. Unusually high solar radiation or urban heat island effects might contribute to exceeding typical highs. Climate change could marginally increase the odds of such an event.
Karachi's late June high temperatures historically range between 28-32°C with a mean around 30.5°C, but the 30°C threshold is frequently surpassed. However, the 0.25% probability suggests either a statistical anomaly or a misinterpretation of the resolution criteria. The market may be underestimating typical seasonal variability.
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Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 30°C on June 28? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 0.3% while ORYN AI estimates 1%.
ORYN aggregates forecasting intelligence across Asia-focused categories including crypto, AI, cricket, startups, and global events.
