Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Data revisions from Wunderground after initial publication
AI updated 6/27/2026, 7:45:33 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 23% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
0%
ORYN Consensus
1%
Signal Score
+0.8
Opportunity
0.7
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 75.0¢
Entry: 0-3
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
4
Price history
2 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Masroor Airbase Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Masroor Airbase Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pk/karachi/OPKC. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market predicts an extremely low (0.25%) probability that Karachi's highest temperature on June 28, 2026 will reach 30°C. Historical climatological data for Karachi in late June suggests this outcome is highly unlikely given typical temperature ranges.
A rare heatwave could push temperatures to 30°C, as Karachi occasionally experiences extreme heat events in late June. Unusually high solar radiation or urban heat island effects might contribute to exceeding typical highs. Climate change could marginally increase the odds of such an event.
Karachi's late June high temperatures historically range between 28-32°C with a mean around 30.5°C, but the 30°C threshold is frequently surpassed. However, the 0.25% probability suggests either a statistical anomaly or a misinterpretation of the resolution criteria. The market may be underestimating typical seasonal variability.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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