Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: potential data revisions from Wunderground
Calibrated 100% · raw 250% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/29/2026, 3:45:17 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
56%
ORYN Consensus
58%
Signal Score
+2.5
Opportunity
1.8
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,488,794
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 250.0¢
Entry: 52-59
—
Resolution
1d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the King Abdulaziz International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the King Abdulaziz International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/sa/jeddah/OEJN. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market indicates a 55.5% probability that Jeddah's highest temperature on June 30, 2026, will reach 40°C or higher, based on historical temperature trends and seasonal patterns. This suggests a slight bullish bias toward extreme heat conditions for the date.
Jeddah frequently experiences temperatures above 40°C in late June due to its desert climate, with historical records showing daily highs often exceeding this threshold. Climate trends indicate rising global temperatures, which may further increase the likelihood of extreme heat events.
June 30 historically shows variability in Jeddah's temperatures, with some years recording highs below 40°C due to unusual weather patterns, monsoon influences, or localized cooling effects. Unseasonable rain or cloud cover could suppress peak temperatures.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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