Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Late data revisions by Wunderground after market resolution
AI updated 6/28/2026, 4:45:54 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
48%
ORYN Consensus
48%
Signal Score
+0.5
Opportunity
0.4
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
962,552
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 50.0¢
Entry: 44-50
—
Resolution
1d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
2 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the King Abdulaziz International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the King Abdulaziz International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/sa/jeddah/OEJN. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market shows a near-even split on whether Jeddah's highest temperature on June 29, 2026, will reach or exceed 40°C, with a 47.50% probability. Historical trends and seasonal patterns strongly favor high temperatures, but variability in weather systems introduces uncertainty.
Jeddah typically experiences extreme heat in late June, with daily highs often exceeding 40°C during this period. Climate trends indicate rising baseline temperatures, increasing the likelihood of extreme heat events. The bull case assumes standard seasonal patterns hold without significant weather anomalies.
Unseasonable weather patterns, such as unusual cloud cover, coastal winds, or rare precipitation events, could suppress temperatures below 40°C. Long-term climate variability or localized microclimatic effects may also reduce peak temperatures. Historical outliers suggest a non-trivial chance of deviation.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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