This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 28 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Key risk: Revisions to NOAA temperature data post-resolution deadline
AI updated 6/27/2026, 8:00:47 AM
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 28 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd Consensus
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ORYN Consensus
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Signal Score
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Opportunity
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ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The market predicts a low probability (0.45%) that Istanbul will reach or exceed 32°C on June 28, 2026, based on historical NOAA temperature trends and seasonal climate patterns for the region.
A heatwave or persistent high-pressure system could push temperatures above 32°C, especially if regional climate anomalies (e.g., El Niño) or urban heat island effects amplify warming. Unseasonably warm conditions in late June are plausible given Istanbul's proximity to hot continental air masses.
Historical NOAA data for Istanbul in late June typically shows highs below 32°C, with average temperatures around 26-29°C. Persistent marine influence from the Black Sea or cloud cover could suppress peak temperatures despite seasonal warming trends.
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Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 32°C or higher on June 28? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 0.5% while ORYN AI estimates 0.5%.
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