Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Data revisions from Wunderground post-resolution cutoff
AI updated 6/27/2026, 7:00:27 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
46%
ORYN Consensus
45%
Signal Score
-1.0
Opportunity
0.7
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -100.0¢
Entry: 43-49
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
9
Price history
3 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 28 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market predicts a 46.50% probability that Houston's highest temperature on June 28, 2026, will fall within the 92-93°F range. Historical climate data and seasonal trends suggest moderate uncertainty, with potential for deviations due to regional weather anomalies.
A high-pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico could drive temperatures into the 92-93°F range, aligning with typical late-June heat in Houston. Persistent drought conditions in Texas may further elevate daytime highs, supporting the bullish scenario.
Unseasonable cloud cover or precipitation could suppress temperatures below 92°F, while late-season cold fronts might push highs toward the lower end of the range. Climate variability and localized cooling effects from urban infrastructure could also reduce the probability.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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