Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Revisions to recorded temperatures after market resolution
AI updated 6/27/2026, 2:45:13 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 22% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
4%
ORYN Consensus
5%
Signal Score
+0.6
Opportunity
0.6
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
correlates · strength 60%
r2
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 60.0¢
Entry: 1-7
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
12
Price history
10 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 27 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for Houston's highest temperature on June 27, 2026, currently has a 5% probability of falling within the 96-97°F range. Historical data and seasonal trends suggest this is an outlier probability, indicating significant skepticism about such a specific temperature outcome.
A bullish outcome would require an unusual heatwave in late June, possibly driven by a high-pressure system, delayed monsoon activity, or climate anomalies. If global or regional weather patterns deviate significantly from historical norms, temperatures could reach or exceed the 96-97°F range.
The bearish case is supported by historical temperature data for Houston in late June, which typically ranges between 90-95°F. Seasonal averages, humidity levels, and typical weather patterns make 96-97°F an unlikely outcome without extraordinary conditions.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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