Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: unpredictable late-season weather shifts
Calibrated 100% · raw 300% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/27/2026, 8:30:15 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
95%
ORYN Consensus
92%
Signal Score
-3.0
Opportunity
2.6
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -300.0¢
Entry: 92-98
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
12
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 27 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market indicates a 95% probability that Houston's highest temperature on June 27, 2026, will fall within the 94-95°F range, based on current climatological trends and historical data patterns for late June in the region.
Historical climate data for Houston in late June shows a strong likelihood of high temperatures between 94-95°F, with recent years (2020-2024) frequently recording peak daily temperatures in this range. The absence of extreme heat anomalies or unusual weather patterns in early forecasts for 2026 supports this outcome.
Anomalous weather conditions such as unseasonal cold fronts, increased cloud cover, or unusual precipitation could suppress temperatures below the 94°F threshold. Additionally, if climate models predict a late-season heatwave peaking outside this range, the probability could decline significantly.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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