Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Narrow two-degree resolution window increases sensitivity to small weather variations
AI updated 7/3/2026, 1:24:07 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| omniroute | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 30% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
10%
ORYN Consensus
10%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
correlates · strength 60%
Shipping and Logistics
correlates · strength 60%
Tech Adoption
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
3,179,924
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
MEDIUM
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 7-13
—
Resolution
23h
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market prices a 10% chance that July 4 high at Hobby Airport hits exactly 100-101°F. While Houston July often sees 100°F, the narrow two-degree range and the possibility of lower or much higher readings keep the probability moderate. Climatological trends show increasing extreme heat, but specific daily outcomes remain highly weather-dependent.
Climate change is raising base temperatures, making 100°F more common in early July. A persistent heat dome or drought could push highs squarely into the 100-101°F window. The current probability underweights the likelihood that Houston's warm-season climatology and extreme heat events combine to hit this range.
The 2°F range is narrow—small variations in clouds, humidity, or sea breeze timing can produce a high of 99°F or 102°F, both resolving NO. Afternoon thunderstorms frequently cap temperatures in Houston summer. The 10-year climatological average high for July 4 at Hobby is below 100°F.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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