Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Data revision risks (though unlikely per market rules)
Calibrated 100% · raw 175% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/28/2026, 4:31:10 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
1%
ORYN Consensus
3%
Signal Score
+1.8
Opportunity
1.5
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
964,146
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 175.0¢
Entry: 0-4
—
Resolution
2d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
3 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 30 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market probability for Hong Kong's highest temperature reaching 35°C on June 30, 2026, is extremely low at 2.60%, indicating minimal market confidence in this outcome. Historical temperature data suggests this threshold is rarely exceeded in late June.
Hong Kong could experience an unprecedented heatwave in late June 2026 due to intensified climate change effects, urban heat island amplification, or unusual atmospheric conditions like a persistent high-pressure system. The city's record high for June is 36.1°C (2018), and a new extreme could push temperatures to 35°C.
Historical climate data shows that Hong Kong's highest temperatures in late June typically range between 32-34°C, with 35°C being an outlier. Persistent cloud cover, monsoon patterns, or unexpected weather anomalies could suppress temperatures below this threshold.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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