Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Data publication delays from the Hong Kong Observatory
AI updated 6/28/2026, 4:30:58 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
4%
ORYN Consensus
4%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
964,146
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 1-6
—
Resolution
2d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 30 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market reflects a low probability (3.5%) that Hong Kong's highest temperature on June 30, 2026, will reach 33°C, based on historical climatological patterns and seasonal trends. The resolution depends on official data from the Hong Kong Observatory, which will not be available until after the date in question.
A bullish outcome could occur if an exceptional heatwave develops in late June 2026, driven by prolonged high-pressure systems, reduced cloud cover, or anomalous warming trends. Such conditions have occurred in past years (e.g., 2021 recorded 35.3°C in June), though they remain statistically rare.
A bearish outcome is more likely given Hong Kong's typical June temperatures, which average around 31-32°C for daily maxima. Persistent maritime influence, monsoon patterns, or unseasonable rainfall could suppress temperatures below the 33°C threshold.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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