Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Late revisions to historical temperature data by the Hong Kong Observatory
AI updated 6/27/2026, 5:45:32 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 23% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
2%
ORYN Consensus
2%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 0-5
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
12
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market reflects a low probability (1.6%) that Hong Kong's highest temperature on June 29, 2026, will reach 34°C, based on historical climate data and seasonal trends. The resolution depends on official Hong Kong Observatory records, which are typically precise but subject to minor revisions.
A bullish scenario could materialize if an unseasonable heatwave develops in late June 2026, driven by strong subtropical ridge pressure or El Niño-induced warming. Persistent high-pressure systems or urban heat island effects in Hong Kong could push temperatures to or above 34°C.
The bear case suggests temperatures will remain below 34°C due to seasonal averages, where late June in Hong Kong typically sees highs around 31-33°C. La Niña conditions or unexpected monsoon activity could suppress temperatures further.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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