This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Key risk: Data revisions by Hong Kong Observatory
AI updated 6/27/2026, 4:45:51 AM
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Crowd Consensus
4%
ORYN Consensus
4%
Signal Score
+0.5
Opportunity
0.4
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The market implies a low probability (4%) of Hong Kong reaching 33°C on June 29, 2026, based on historical climate data and seasonal trends. This suggests skepticism about extreme heat conditions occurring on that specific date.
Hong Kong could surpass 33°C if an unprecedented heatwave develops in late June 2026, driven by strong subtropical high pressure or unusual weather patterns. Unseasonably warm conditions from climate change may also increase the likelihood.
Historical data shows late June temperatures in Hong Kong typically range between 28-32°C, making 33°C an outlier. Persistent cloud cover, monsoon influence, or cooler-than-average conditions would suppress the probability.
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Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 29? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 3.5% while ORYN AI estimates 4%.
ORYN aggregates forecasting intelligence across Asia-focused categories including crypto, AI, cricket, startups, and global events.
