Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Short-term weather volatility (e.g., tropical cyclones)
Calibrated 100% · raw 150% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/29/2026, 2:00:18 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
51%
ORYN Consensus
52%
Signal Score
+1.5
Opportunity
1.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,350,618
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 150.0¢
Entry: 48-54
—
Resolution
7h
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for Hong Kong's highest temperature on June 29, 2026, shows a near-neutral probability (50.50%) of reaching 30°C, reflecting uncertainty due to seasonal variability and climate trends. Historical data and seasonal patterns suggest a moderate likelihood, but short-term weather fluctuations introduce risk.
Hong Kong's average June temperatures range from 27°C to 32°C, with recent years trending warmer due to climate change. A sustained high-pressure system or heatwave could push daily highs to or above 30°C, supported by long-term warming trends (+0.3°C per decade in HK).
June is early for peak summer heat in Hong Kong, with historical highs rarely exceeding 30°C before late July. Unseasonable rainfall or monsoon patterns could suppress temperatures below 30°C, as seen in 2023 (high of 29.1°C on June 29).
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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