Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Data revisions by the Hong Kong Observatory after initial publication
AI updated 6/27/2026, 4:15:45 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 22% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
0%
ORYN Consensus
1%
Signal Score
+0.9
Opportunity
0.9
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 90.0¢
Entry: 0-3
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
12
Price history
2 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market predicts an extremely low probability (1.05%) that Hong Kong's highest temperature on June 29, 2026, will be 26°C or below, based on historical climate trends and seasonal norms. The Hong Kong Observatory's data resolution ensures high precision, but the market's timing (June) suggests high seasonal temperatures are expected.
A bullish outcome (≤26°C) could occur if an unusual weather anomaly, such as an unseasonal cold front or persistent cloud cover, suppresses daytime heating. Historically, June in Hong Kong averages highs of ~31-32°C, but extreme weather events (e.g., tropical cyclone remnants) could disrupt this trend.
A bearish outcome (>26°C) aligns with Hong Kong's typical June climate, where temperatures frequently exceed 26°C due to subtropical humidity and solar heating. Climate change trends further support higher baseline temperatures, making this outcome highly probable.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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