This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Key risk: Data revisions by the Hong Kong Observatory after initial publication
AI updated 6/27/2026, 4:15:45 AM
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Crowd Consensus
1%
ORYN Consensus
1%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The market predicts an extremely low probability (1.05%) that Hong Kong's highest temperature on June 29, 2026, will be 26°C or below, based on historical climate trends and seasonal norms. The Hong Kong Observatory's data resolution ensures high precision, but the market's timing (June) suggests high seasonal temperatures are expected.
A bullish outcome (≤26°C) could occur if an unusual weather anomaly, such as an unseasonal cold front or persistent cloud cover, suppresses daytime heating. Historically, June in Hong Kong averages highs of ~31-32°C, but extreme weather events (e.g., tropical cyclone remnants) could disrupt this trend.
A bearish outcome (>26°C) aligns with Hong Kong's typical June climate, where temperatures frequently exceed 26°C due to subtropical humidity and solar heating. Climate change trends further support higher baseline temperatures, making this outcome highly probable.
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Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C or below on June 29? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 1.1% while ORYN AI estimates 1.1%.
ORYN aggregates forecasting intelligence across Asia-focused categories including crypto, AI, cricket, startups, and global events.
