Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Provided webpage excerpt is partial and not the finalized July 2026 daily extract needed for settlement
AI updated 7/3/2026, 4:38:07 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| omniroute | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 30% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
1%
ORYN Consensus
1%
Signal Score
+0.1
Opportunity
0.1
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
correlates · strength 60%
Platform/user-growth independence: 'Will Manifold.love reach 1000 daily active users' is operational/platform-specific and essentially unrelated to Hong Kong weather, aside from trivial common effects from attention cycles or forecast market participation.
correlates · strength 60%
Political-risk transmission: 'Putin out as President of Russia' can affect global risk sentiment and energy prices, but has negligible direct bearing on Hong Kong's daily maximum temperature; relationship is near-independent except through broad market mood.
correlates · strength 60%
Energy/geopolitics linkage: Hong Kong temperature is largely meteorological and only very weakly related to Strait of Hormuz traffic, ship-count, Putin, or crude-oil markets; any connection would be indirect via global weather-driven energy demand affecting oil sentiment, so correlation is low.
correlates · strength 60%
Regional weather vs global commodity markets: a 26°C high in Hong Kong on a specific July day may reflect broader seasonal or subtropical weather patterns, but this does not meaningfully predict whether CL hits $60; at most both can co-move through macro narratives about cooling/heating demand.
correlates · strength 60%
Shipping and oil market cluster: 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal,' '40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz,' and 'Crude Oil (CL) hit $60' are tightly related to each other through Gulf supply risk, unlike the Hong Kong temperature market which sits outside that causal cluster.
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
3,180,254
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 15.0¢
Entry: 0-4
—
Resolution
1d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 5 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
A highest temperature of exactly 26.0°C in Hong Kong on July 5 is very unlikely given the climatological context. Early July in Hong Kong is typically hot and humid, with daily maxima usually in the low 30s, so the current market probability appears directionally reasonable.
The contract only resolves yes if the Hong Kong Observatory reports an absolute daily maximum of exactly 26.0°C to one decimal place, so there is a narrow but nonzero path via an unusually strong rainband, persistent cloud cover, or a post-tropical disturbance suppressing daytime heating. If a rare anomalously cool and wet setup holds through peak heating hours, the observed maximum could land in the 26.0°C bucket.
Hong Kong's July climatology strongly disfavors such a low daytime maximum, with the provided site content showing July mean maximum temperatures around 31.8°C. Because resolution is to one decimal place, even a relatively cool day of 26.4°C or 25.9°C would still lose, making the exact-hit requirement especially punitive.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
No direct venue links for this market. ORYN exclusive markets are intelligence-only.
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