Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: late_Junes_2026_weather_forecast_uncertainty
Calibrated 100% · raw 1350% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/27/2026, 4:16:21 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 22% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
2%
ORYN Consensus
15%
Signal Score
+13.5
Opportunity
11.5
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 1350.0¢
Entry: 0-4
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
10
Price history
2 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fi/vantaa/EFHK. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market suggests a low probability (17.55%) that Helsinki's highest temperature on June 29, 2026, will reach 23°C. Historical climate data and seasonal trends indicate this is unlikely, though not impossible.
A rare heatwave in late June could push temperatures to 23°C, driven by high-pressure systems from continental Europe or prolonged southerly winds. Climate change may slightly increase the likelihood of such extreme events.
Historical averages for Helsinki in late June show highs typically around 18-21°C, with 23°C being an outlier. Persistent maritime influence or cloud cover would likely keep temperatures below this threshold.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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