Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Data revisions from Wunderground (post-resolution cutoff)
AI updated 6/29/2026, 3:00:17 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
4%
ORYN Consensus
4%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,386,777
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 1-6
—
Resolution
5h
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market indicates a low probability (3.50%) that Guangzhou's highest temperature on June 29, 2026 will reach 35°C, reflecting historically moderate late-June temperatures in the region. Historical data suggests temperatures in this range are uncommon but not unprecedented.
A bullish outcome could occur if an early-season heatwave develops in South China due to an anomalous high-pressure system over the South China Sea, combined with weaker-than-expected monsoon winds reducing coastal cooling. Urban heat island effects from Guangzhou's rapid expansion may also push temperatures higher.
A bearish outcome is more likely given Guangzhou's typical late-June climate (historically averaging 30-33°C highs), with persistent cloud cover, monsoon rainfall, or localized cooling from tropical moisture reducing peak temperatures. Climate trends show slight cooling in the Pearl River Delta during early summer.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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