Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Climate variability introducing outliers
AI updated 6/29/2026, 12:45:30 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
1%
ORYN Consensus
1%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,542,945
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 0-4
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Buckley Space Force Base Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Buckley Space Force Base Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/co/aurora/KBKF. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market suggests an extremely low probability (1.20%) that Denver's highest temperature on June 29, 2026, will fall within the 84-85°F range. Historical temperature distributions for late June in Denver indicate this range is uncommon, with typical highs clustering around 80-83°F or 86-89°F.
A bullish scenario could emerge if an unexpected heatwave or high-pressure system stalls over the region, pushing temperatures into the 84-85°F range. Unseasonably warm air masses or localized urban heat island effects in Denver could also contribute to this outcome.
The bear case hinges on typical late-June climatology, where Denver's highs rarely fall precisely in the 84-85°F range. A cooler-than-average air mass, increased cloud cover, or precipitation could suppress temperatures below this range, making the event unlikely.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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