Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: unexpected_climate_shift_altering_temperature_normals
AI updated 6/26/2026, 6:45:38 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 22% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
0%
ORYN Consensus
0%
Signal Score
-0.1
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -5.0¢
Entry: 0-3
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
9
Price history
16 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Buckley Space Force Base Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 27 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Buckley Space Force Base Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/co/aurora/KBKF. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The probability of Denver's highest temperature on June 27, 2026, falling within the 100-101°F range is extremely low at 0.35%, based on historical climate data and seasonal trends. This market reflects an outlier scenario given Denver's average late-June high temperatures.
A rare heatwave could push temperatures into the 100-101°F range, driven by high-pressure systems, persistent drought conditions, or climate anomalies. Such events have occurred historically (e.g., June 2012 hit 105°F), though they are statistically uncommon. Unseasonably warm global weather patterns could also contribute.
Denver's late-June climatology favors highs in the 80-90°F range, with 100°F+ events historically rare. Persistent cloud cover, unusual cold fronts, or wetter-than-average monsoon conditions would suppress temperatures below the target range. The market's low probability aligns with these baseline expectations.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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