Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Narrow temperature window increases variance
Calibrated 100% · raw 225% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 7/3/2026, 1:36:43 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| omniroute | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 30% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
8%
ORYN Consensus
10%
Signal Score
+2.3
Opportunity
1.6
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
correlates · strength 60%
r3
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
3,513,506
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 225.0¢
Entry: 5-11
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Buckley Space Force Base Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Buckley Space Force Base Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/co/aurora/KBKF. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
This market bets on a very narrow temperature range (94-95°F) for Denver's July 4 high, with only 7.75% probability. The specific range is uncommon historically, making it a low-probability event. Resolution depends on precise readings from a single weather station.
A heatwave or unusual atmospheric pattern could push the high into the low 90s, and if conditions align perfectly, it might land within this narrow band. Climate change increases the likelihood of extreme heat events, potentially making such specific ranges more plausible.
Denver's average July 4 high is around 88°F, and the 94-95°F range is very narrow and rarely observed. The market probability already reflects this low likelihood, and weather variability makes hitting such a precise target unlikely.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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