Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Late-stage revisions to temperature records by Wunderground
AI updated 6/29/2026, 7:16:04 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
2%
ORYN Consensus
2%
Signal Score
+0.1
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,470,088
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 5.0¢
Entry: 0-5
—
Resolution
1d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 30 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Dallas Love Field Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The probability of Dallas reaching a high temperature between 102-103°F on June 30, 2026, is extremely low at 1.95%, suggesting historical and climatological data do not favor this outcome. The market's resolution is contingent on real-time temperature records from Wunderground, which may introduce minor revisions but unlikely to shift the outcome significantly.
A bullish scenario could materialize if an unexpected heatwave develops in late June 2026, driven by persistent high-pressure systems or unusual atmospheric conditions. Unseasonably warm air masses from the Gulf of Mexico or prolonged drought conditions in Texas could elevate temperatures into the 102-103°F range. However, such events are historically rare for late June.
The bearish case aligns with long-term climatological trends, where Dallas typically records high temperatures in the upper 90s°F in late June, with 102-103°F being an outlier. Persistent cloud cover, rainfall, or cooler-than-average air masses from the north could suppress temperatures below the target range. Historical data from Wunderground suggests this outcome is highly improbable.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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