Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Unseasonably cool front or thunderstorm activity on July 4
Calibrated 100% · raw 140% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 7/3/2026, 1:34:29 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| omniroute | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 29% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
1%
ORYN Consensus
2%
Signal Score
+1.4
Opportunity
0.8
Graph Relationships
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Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
3,163,795
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 140.0¢
Entry: 0-4
—
Resolution
1d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
3 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Dallas Love Field Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
This market asks whether the highest temperature at Dallas Love Field on July 4, 2026, falls in the narrow 112–113°F range. Currently priced at 1.05%, the market implies a low probability of hitting this specific bin. While Dallas experiences extreme summer heat, the chance of landing exactly in that 1-degree window on a single day is inherently small.
Dallas has recorded temperatures at or above 113°F historically, and climate change increases the frequency of extreme heat events. A heat dome or persistent high-pressure system could push temperatures into the 112–113°F range on July 4, especially if preceding days are very hot.
The specified range is extremely narrow, and most July 4th highs in Dallas fall well below 110°F. Short-term weather patterns are unlikely to align perfectly to hit 112–113°F, and the low market price suggests informed traders see minimal chance of this outcome.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
No direct venue links for this market. ORYN exclusive markets are intelligence-only.
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