Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Narrow temperature range makes random weather noise relevant
AI updated 7/3/2026, 1:34:05 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| omniroute | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 30% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
2%
ORYN Consensus
3%
Signal Score
+0.9
Opportunity
0.7
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
correlates · strength 60%
correlated market
correlates · strength 60%
Will Manifold.love reach 1000 daily active users (7d average) by Feb 14, 2024? is inversely related to Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 110-111°F on July 4? as both are highly dependent on unpredictable events, Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? is positively correlated with Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 110-111°F on July 4? as both are sensitive to global events, Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? is inversely related to Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 110-111°F on July 4? as high temperatures in Dallas may lead to increased energy demand, Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? is not related to the other markets
correlates · strength 60%
correlated market
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
3,505,203
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 95.0¢
Entry: 0-5
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
2 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Dallas Love Field Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
This market tracks whether the July 4 high temperature at Dallas Love Field reaches the narrow 110-111°F range, currently priced at ~2%. Historically, such extreme heat is rare but possible under strong heat dome conditions, with the record high for any July 4 near 110°F. The low probability reflects both the specificity of the range and the infrequency of 110°F+ days in Dallas.
A prolonged heatwave or heat dome event could push temperatures into the 110-111°F range, especially if soil moisture is low and high-pressure systems stall over Texas. Climate change is gradually raising baseline summer temperatures, making record-breaking heat more probable each year.
The range is very narrow (only 1°F), and Dallas Love Field has historically reached 110°F+ on July 4 only a handful of times in the past century. Most summers peak in the 105-109°F range, and even extreme heat often falls just short of this threshold.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
Route to regulated venues when you are ready. ORYN never holds your funds.
ORYN does not hold funds or execute trades. You will be redirected to a third-party regulated venue.
No comments yet.
