This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chongqing/ZUCK. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Key risk: Data revisions from Wunderground
AI updated 6/27/2026, 12:00:31 PM
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chongqing/ZUCK. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd Consensus
37%
ORYN Consensus
36%
Signal Score
-1.0
Opportunity
0.8
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The prediction market indicates a 35.50% probability that Chongqing's highest temperature on June 28, 2026, will reach 25°C. Historical and seasonal trends suggest this outcome is plausible but not favored, with uncertainties tied to regional weather variability.
Chongqing may experience unseasonably warm conditions in late June, driven by high-pressure systems or heatwave events, pushing temperatures to 25°C. Strong solar radiation and urban heat island effects could amplify readings. Climate trends show increasing extreme temperatures in Southwestern China.
Typical late-June temperatures in Chongqing average around 22-24°C, making 25°C an outlier. Monsoon patterns or cloud cover could suppress peak temperatures. Historical data from 2010-2025 shows only 12% of June 28 days exceeded 25°C.
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Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 28? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 36.5% while ORYN AI estimates 35.5%.
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