Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Late-season cold fronts or unexpected precipitation
Calibrated 100% · raw 150% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/28/2026, 8:15:29 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
34%
ORYN Consensus
35%
Signal Score
+1.5
Opportunity
1.1
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,239,166
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 150.0¢
Entry: 31-36
—
Resolution
13h
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
2 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market predicts a 35% probability that Chicago's highest temperature on June 29, 2026, will fall within the 94-95°F range. Historical climate data and seasonal trends suggest a moderate likelihood, but uncertainty remains due to variability in weather patterns.
A bullish outcome would see temperatures in Chicago reaching 94-95°F, driven by persistent high-pressure systems, prolonged heatwaves, or urban heat island effects. Such conditions could align with early-season heat records or prolonged drought conditions in the Midwest.
A bearish outcome would see temperatures below 94°F, potentially due to unseasonal cold fronts, increased cloud cover, or precipitation disrupting heat buildup. La Niña or other atmospheric anomalies could also moderate temperatures.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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