This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 27 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Key risk: Data revisions by Wunderground after initial publication (though unlikely after first datapoint)
AI updated 6/27/2026, 12:15:35 AM
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 27 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd Consensus
31%
ORYN Consensus
28%
Signal Score
-2.5
Opportunity
1.6
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The prediction market for Chicago's highest temperature on June 27, 2026, being between 74-75°F currently stands at 30.50%, indicating low immediate confidence in this specific range. Historical data and seasonal trends suggest variability in late June temperatures for Chicago, but this narrow range faces significant uncertainty.
A bullish scenario would require atypical late-June weather patterns, such as a prolonged heatwave or a strong high-pressure system over the Midwest, pushing temperatures into the 74-75°F range. Alternatively, urban heat island effects or localized microclimatic factors in Chicago could skew readings higher than broader regional averages.
A bearish outcome is more likely given historical averages; late June in Chicago typically sees highs in the low-to-mid 70s°F, but the 74-75°F range is narrow and may exclude most common outcomes. Persistent cloud cover, rain, or cooler-than-average air masses could suppress temperatures below this range.
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Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 27? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 30.5% while ORYN AI estimates 28%.
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