Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Data revisions by Wunderground after initial publication (though unlikely after first datapoint)
Calibrated 100% · raw 250% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/27/2026, 12:15:35 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 23% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
31%
ORYN Consensus
28%
Signal Score
-2.5
Opportunity
1.6
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -250.0¢
Entry: 28-34
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
8
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 27 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for Chicago's highest temperature on June 27, 2026, being between 74-75°F currently stands at 30.50%, indicating low immediate confidence in this specific range. Historical data and seasonal trends suggest variability in late June temperatures for Chicago, but this narrow range faces significant uncertainty.
A bullish scenario would require atypical late-June weather patterns, such as a prolonged heatwave or a strong high-pressure system over the Midwest, pushing temperatures into the 74-75°F range. Alternatively, urban heat island effects or localized microclimatic factors in Chicago could skew readings higher than broader regional averages.
A bearish outcome is more likely given historical averages; late June in Chicago typically sees highs in the low-to-mid 70s°F, but the 74-75°F range is narrow and may exclude most common outcomes. Persistent cloud cover, rain, or cooler-than-average air masses could suppress temperatures below this range.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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