Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Uncharacteristic cold front or storm system
Calibrated 100% · raw 140% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 7/3/2026, 1:36:12 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| omniroute | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 30% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
1%
ORYN Consensus
2%
Signal Score
+1.4
Opportunity
1.3
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
correlates · strength 60%
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correlates · strength 60%
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correlates · strength 60%
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correlates · strength 60%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? is related to Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 75°F or below on July 4? as both are concerned with short-term market fluctuations.
correlates · strength 60%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? is related to Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 75°F or below on July 4? as both are focused on long-term political and economic predictions.
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
3,505,203
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 140.0¢
Entry: 0-4
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
4 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market implies a 1.9% chance that Chicago's July 4 high temperature will be 75°F or below, reflecting the extreme unlikelihood of such a cool day in midsummer. Historical data shows typical highs near 85°F, with very few instances falling below 75°F.
A strong cold front or prolonged overcast conditions could suppress daytime heating, potentially keeping temperatures below 75°F. Unusual weather patterns in 2026 might deviate from climate norms, though this remains highly improbable.
Chicago in early July is climatologically hot, with average highs around 85°F and warming trends due to climate change making cooler days even rarer. The current market price of 1.9% already reflects the realistic low probability.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
Route to regulated venues when you are ready. ORYN never holds your funds.
ORYN does not hold funds or execute trades. You will be redirected to a third-party regulated venue.
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