This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Key risk: Revision of historical temperature data by Wunderground
AI updated 6/27/2026, 4:46:04 AM
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd Consensus
13%
ORYN Consensus
12%
Signal Score
-1.0
Opportunity
0.8
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The market predicts a low probability (13%) that Chengdu's highest temperature on June 29, 2026, will reach 31°C. Historical climate data for Chengdu in late June indicates typical highs ranging from 28°C to 30°C, with 31°C being an outlier.
A bullish scenario could unfold if an unusual heatwave or atmospheric blocking pattern develops over Sichuan Province in late June 2026, pushing temperatures beyond the historical norm. Climate projections for summer 2026 suggest possible above-average temperatures in southwestern China due to El Niño influences.
The bear case suggests Chengdu's typical late-June climate patterns will persist, with highs hovering around 28-30°C. The city's urban heat island effect and regional weather systems (e.g., monsoon-driven cloud cover) may suppress extreme heat events. No major climate anomalies are currently forecasted for the region.
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Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 29? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 13% while ORYN AI estimates 12%.
ORYN aggregates forecasting intelligence across Asia-focused categories including crypto, AI, cricket, startups, and global events.
