Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: data revisions from Wunderground after initial publication
AI updated 6/28/2026, 1:45:19 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
9%
ORYN Consensus
9%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
962,552
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 6-12
—
Resolution
1d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
8 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market probability of 8.50% suggests a low likelihood that Chengdu's highest temperature on June 29, 2026, will reach 27°C. Historical climate data and seasonal trends for Chengdu in late June indicate that such temperatures are uncommon but not impossible.
A bullish outcome could occur if a heatwave or unusual weather pattern brings sustained high temperatures to Sichuan Province in late June 2026. Climate anomalies or early monsoon disruptions could push daily highs toward 27°C, aligning with the market's resolution threshold.
The bearish case is supported by Chengdu's typical late-June climate, where average highs are around 25-26°C, with extremes rarely exceeding 28°C. Persistent cloud cover, rainfall, or cooler-than-average conditions would make 27°C unlikely, favoring lower temperatures.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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