Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Revisions to temperature data post-resolution cutoff
AI updated 6/27/2026, 5:30:32 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
0%
ORYN Consensus
1%
Signal Score
+0.9
Opportunity
0.9
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 90.0¢
Entry: 0-3
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
10
Price history
28 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Cape Town International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The likelihood of Cape Town's highest temperature reaching exactly 10°C on June 29, 2026, is very low at 1.05%, based on historical temperature trends and seasonal norms for the region. The probability is further constrained by the market's precision requirement (whole degrees Celsius).
A rare weather anomaly, such as an unexpected cold front or high-pressure system, could push temperatures down to 10°C, though this is statistically unlikely given Cape Town's typical June climate. Unseasonal rainfall or cloud cover might also contribute to cooler-than-average conditions.
Cape Town's historical June temperatures rarely drop to 10°C, with averages typically ranging between 12°C and 18°C. The probability of hitting exactly 10°C is minimal, and any deviation above this threshold would result in a 'no' resolution. Climate change trends suggest warming, reducing the likelihood of such low temperatures.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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