This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Cape Town International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Key risk: Revisions to temperature data post-resolution cutoff
AI updated 6/27/2026, 5:30:32 AM
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Cape Town International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd Consensus
1%
ORYN Consensus
1%
Signal Score
-0.1
Opportunity
0.1
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The likelihood of Cape Town's highest temperature reaching exactly 10°C on June 29, 2026, is very low at 1.05%, based on historical temperature trends and seasonal norms for the region. The probability is further constrained by the market's precision requirement (whole degrees Celsius).
A rare weather anomaly, such as an unexpected cold front or high-pressure system, could push temperatures down to 10°C, though this is statistically unlikely given Cape Town's typical June climate. Unseasonal rainfall or cloud cover might also contribute to cooler-than-average conditions.
Cape Town's historical June temperatures rarely drop to 10°C, with averages typically ranging between 12°C and 18°C. The probability of hitting exactly 10°C is minimal, and any deviation above this threshold would result in a 'no' resolution. Climate change trends suggest warming, reducing the likelihood of such low temperatures.
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Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 10°C on June 29? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 1.2% while ORYN AI estimates 1.1%.
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