Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: data source reliability (Wunderground)
AI updated 6/27/2026, 9:15:33 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
0%
ORYN Consensus
0%
Signal Score
+0.1
Opportunity
0.1
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 15.0¢
Entry: 0-3
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
5
Price history
4 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Cape Town International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market predicts an extremely low probability (0.40%) that Cape Town's highest temperature on June 27, 2026, will be exactly 21°C, based on historical climate data and seasonal trends. The resolution hinges on precise meteorological records, which are subject to measurement revisions.
A bullish outcome could occur if an unexpected warming event (e.g., a strong offshore wind or heatwave) aligns with the date, pushing the daily high to 21°C. Unusual atmospheric conditions or localized microclimate effects in the Cape Town region could also contribute.
The bearish outcome is more likely given Cape Town's typical winter temperatures in June, which rarely reach 21°C. Historical data suggests highs are usually between 15-19°C, making 21°C an outlier. Measurement errors or data revisions could also invalidate the claim.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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