This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Cape Town International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Key risk: data source reliability (Wunderground)
AI updated 6/27/2026, 9:15:33 AM
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Cape Town International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd Consensus
0%
ORYN Consensus
0%
Signal Score
+0.1
Opportunity
0.1
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The market predicts an extremely low probability (0.40%) that Cape Town's highest temperature on June 27, 2026, will be exactly 21°C, based on historical climate data and seasonal trends. The resolution hinges on precise meteorological records, which are subject to measurement revisions.
A bullish outcome could occur if an unexpected warming event (e.g., a strong offshore wind or heatwave) aligns with the date, pushing the daily high to 21°C. Unusual atmospheric conditions or localized microclimate effects in the Cape Town region could also contribute.
The bearish outcome is more likely given Cape Town's typical winter temperatures in June, which rarely reach 21°C. Historical data suggests highs are usually between 15-19°C, making 21°C an outlier. Measurement errors or data revisions could also invalidate the claim.
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Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on June 27? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 0.3% while ORYN AI estimates 0.4%.
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