Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Potential late revisions to temperature data from Wunderground
Calibrated 100% · raw 9960% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/27/2026, 5:30:21 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
100%
ORYN Consensus
0%
Signal Score
-99.6
Opportunity
97.6
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -9960.0¢
Entry: 97-100
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
12
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Cape Town International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market is highly confident that Cape Town's highest temperature on June 27, 2026, will not reach 17°C, with a 99.80% probability assigned. Historical climate data for Cape Town in late June suggests average high temperatures of 16-17°C, but recent trends indicate slight warming.
A high of 17°C or above is plausible if an unusual warm spell occurs, such as a strong offshore wind (e.g., Berg wind) or a delayed seasonal cooling pattern. Unseasonably warm conditions could push temperatures above the historical average.
Temperatures are more likely to remain below 17°C given Cape Town's typical winter weather patterns in late June, which often include cool, overcast conditions and possible cold fronts. Climate trends also suggest a slight cooling bias in recent years.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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