This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Cape Town International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Key risk: Potential late revisions to temperature data from Wunderground
Calibrated 100% · raw 9960% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/27/2026, 5:30:21 PM
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Cape Town International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd Consensus
100%
ORYN Consensus
0%
Signal Score
-99.6
Opportunity
97.6
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The market is highly confident that Cape Town's highest temperature on June 27, 2026, will not reach 17°C, with a 99.80% probability assigned. Historical climate data for Cape Town in late June suggests average high temperatures of 16-17°C, but recent trends indicate slight warming.
A high of 17°C or above is plausible if an unusual warm spell occurs, such as a strong offshore wind (e.g., Berg wind) or a delayed seasonal cooling pattern. Unseasonably warm conditions could push temperatures above the historical average.
Temperatures are more likely to remain below 17°C given Cape Town's typical winter weather patterns in late June, which often include cool, overcast conditions and possible cold fronts. Climate trends also suggest a slight cooling bias in recent years.
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Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 27? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 99.8% while ORYN AI estimates 0.2%.
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