Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: No direct target-date observation is available in the provided source content
AI updated 7/3/2026, 4:39:00 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| omniroute | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 29% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
16%
ORYN Consensus
15%
Signal Score
-0.5
Opportunity
0.2
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
correlates · strength 60%
Very weak thematic link between Strait of Hormuz traffic counts and crude oil hitting $60: both are energy/logistics-sensitive, but this relationship does not extend materially to the Cape Town temperature market.
correlates · strength 60%
No substantive relationship with Manifold daily active users: platform user growth is unrelated to Cape Town weather outcomes.
correlates · strength 60%
No clear direct relationship: Cape Town daily temperature is primarily driven by local weather systems and is largely independent of geopolitical outcomes like Putin leaving office or Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization.
correlates · strength 60%
Weak indirect macro link with oil/shipping markets: extreme disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz can affect global energy prices and shipping sentiment, but this has negligible short-term causal impact on whether Cape Town’s high is exactly 21°C on July 5.
correlates · strength 60%
Potential shared 'calendar/timing market' structure only: all are date-bounded binary questions, but they do not share meaningful fundamental drivers.
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
3,163,435
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
MEDIUM
EV 1000.0¢
Entry: 2-8
—
Resolution
2d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
3 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Cape Town International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
This market asks whether the daily high at Cape Town International Airport Station on 5 Jul 2026 resolves to exactly 21°C, using Wunderground's whole-degree daily history page. The provided Wunderground page currently shows no recorded daily observations, so the best estimate must rely on climatology and winter temperature patterns for Cape Town rather than direct same-day station data.
Early July is mid-winter in Cape Town, and daytime highs in the upper teens to low 20s are common enough that 21°C sits near a plausible shoulder of the daily distribution. Because the market resolves to a rounded whole-degree Celsius value, a true maximum near 20.5-21.4°C could still print as 21°C, slightly increasing the chance of an exact hit.
An exact-temperature market is inherently narrow: even if the day is seasonally normal, many adjacent outcomes such as 19°C, 20°C, or 22°C are also plausible and collectively dominate. The current source page shows no usable historical observation for the target date, which raises uncertainty and makes a precise 21°C call difficult to justify above a modest probability.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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