Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Resolution source revisions after the event
Calibrated 100% · raw 445% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 7/2/2026, 11:00:49 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| omniroute | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 30% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
1%
ORYN Consensus
5%
Signal Score
+4.5
Opportunity
1.8
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
correlates · strength 60%
r3
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
3,067,890
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 445.0¢
Entry: 0-4
—
Resolution
1d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
5 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Cape Town International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
This market asks whether Cape Town's maximum temperature on July 4, 2026, will be exactly 14°C. At 0.55% probability, the market considers it highly unlikely given typical winter highs around 16-18°C, but not impossible if a strong cold front suppresses temperatures.
An unusually strong winter cold front could keep temperatures low all day. Heavy cloud cover, rain, and strong southerly winds could prevent any warming, capping the high at 14°C. The airport's coastal location might record slightly cooler readings than inland areas.
Cape Town's July average high is well above 14°C, making such a low maximum an outlier. Even on cold days, afternoon sunshine often raises temperatures. The exact 14°C target is extremely narrow among many possible whole-degree values.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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