Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: potential revisions to historical temperature data before market resolution
AI updated 6/28/2026, 8:30:34 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
1%
ORYN Consensus
1%
Signal Score
+0.1
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,073,931
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 5.0¢
Entry: 0-4
—
Resolution
1d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
4 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Gimhae Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Gimhae Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/busan/RKPK. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market predicts a low 1.15% probability that Busan's highest temperature on June 30, 2026, will reach 32°C, reflecting historical climate data patterns for the region. This suggests skepticism about extreme heat events occurring on that specific date.
A bullish scenario could unfold if an unexpected heatwave develops due to unusual atmospheric conditions, such as a strong high-pressure system or a delayed monsoon, pushing temperatures to 32°C. Regional climate anomalies or global warming trends could also contribute to this outcome.
The bearish case is supported by historical weather data, as Busan's average high temperature for late June typically ranges between 26-29°C, with 32°C being an outlier. Persistent cloud cover, rainfall, or cooler-than-average ocean currents could suppress temperatures below the threshold.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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