Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Potential revisions to temperature data post-resolution
Calibrated 100% · raw 150% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/28/2026, 5:15:42 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
6%
ORYN Consensus
5%
Signal Score
-1.5
Opportunity
1.3
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
963,132
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -150.0¢
Entry: 3-9
—
Resolution
2d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
4 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Gimhae Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Gimhae Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/busan/RKPK. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market predicts a low probability (4.5%) that Busan's highest temperature on June 30, 2026, will reach 25°C. Historical climate data suggests this outcome is unlikely given typical late June temperatures in the region.
A bullish scenario could emerge if a strong high-pressure system or heat dome settles over the Korean Peninsula, leading to prolonged hot conditions. Unusual atmospheric patterns, such as a persistent subtropical ridge, could push temperatures above the 25°C threshold.
A bearish outcome is more likely, as Busan's average high temperature in late June typically ranges between 22-24°C. Cooler-than-average conditions, cloud cover, or maritime influences from the Yellow Sea could suppress temperatures below 25°C.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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