This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Gimhae Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Gimhae Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/busan/RKPK. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Key risk: Data revisions from Wunderground post-resolution cutoff
AI updated 6/27/2026, 5:00:37 AM
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Gimhae Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Gimhae Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/busan/RKPK. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd Consensus
5%
ORYN Consensus
4%
Signal Score
-1.2
Opportunity
0.9
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The market reflects low confidence (3.65%) in Busan reaching a high of 31°C on June 29, 2026, based on historical temperature trends and seasonal norms. Resolution depends on real-time data from Wunderground for Gimhae International Airport Station.
A high of 31°C is plausible if a strong high-pressure system or heatwave affects southeastern Korea in late June 2026. Unseasonably warm southerly winds or urban heat island effects in Busan could push temperatures to this threshold.
Historical data suggests June highs in Busan typically range between 24-28°C, with 31°C being rare. Persistent cloud cover, monsoon influences, or cooler-than-average conditions would make this outcome unlikely.
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Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 29? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 4.9% while ORYN AI estimates 3.7%.
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