This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Gimhae Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Gimhae Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/busan/RKPK. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Key risk: climate data revisions after market resolution
AI updated 6/27/2026, 11:01:18 AM
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Gimhae Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Gimhae Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/busan/RKPK. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd Consensus
6%
ORYN Consensus
4%
Signal Score
-1.8
Opportunity
1.5
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The market indicates a low 4.15% probability that Busan's highest temperature on June 29, 2026, will reach 30°C, based on historical climate data and seasonal trends for the region. This suggests skepticism about extreme heat conditions occurring on that specific date.
A bullish outcome could occur if an unexpected heatwave or prolonged high-pressure system develops over the Korean Peninsula, leading to unusually high temperatures. Climate anomalies, such as delayed monsoon patterns or strong subtropical highs, could push temperatures toward or above 30°C.
A bearish outcome is more likely given Busan's typical June climate, which rarely exceeds 30°C in late June. Persistent cloud cover, monsoon-related rainfall, or cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures could suppress temperatures well below the threshold.
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Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 29? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 6% while ORYN AI estimates 4.2%.
ORYN aggregates forecasting intelligence across Asia-focused categories including crypto, AI, cricket, startups, and global events.
