Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: climate data revisions after market resolution
Calibrated 100% · raw 180% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/27/2026, 11:01:18 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
6%
ORYN Consensus
4%
Signal Score
-1.8
Opportunity
1.5
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -180.0¢
Entry: 3-9
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
7
Price history
3 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Gimhae Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Gimhae Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/busan/RKPK. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market indicates a low 4.15% probability that Busan's highest temperature on June 29, 2026, will reach 30°C, based on historical climate data and seasonal trends for the region. This suggests skepticism about extreme heat conditions occurring on that specific date.
A bullish outcome could occur if an unexpected heatwave or prolonged high-pressure system develops over the Korean Peninsula, leading to unusually high temperatures. Climate anomalies, such as delayed monsoon patterns or strong subtropical highs, could push temperatures toward or above 30°C.
A bearish outcome is more likely given Busan's typical June climate, which rarely exceeds 30°C in late June. Persistent cloud cover, monsoon-related rainfall, or cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures could suppress temperatures well below the threshold.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
Route to regulated venues when you are ready. ORYN never holds your funds.
ORYN does not hold funds or execute trades. You will be redirected to a third-party regulated venue.
No comments yet.
