Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Late-season data revisions to historical temperature records
AI updated 6/28/2026, 1:30:56 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 23% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
5%
ORYN Consensus
5%
Signal Score
-0.3
Opportunity
0.3
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -30.0¢
Entry: 2-8
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
4
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZ. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market indicates a low (4.80%) probability that Buenos Aires' highest temperature on June 29, 2026, will reach 17°C. Historical climate data and seasonal trends suggest this is unlikely, given typical winter conditions in the region.
A bullish outcome could result from an unusual warm spell or heatwave affecting southern South America in late June, driven by atypical atmospheric patterns such as a strong El Niño phase or persistent high-pressure systems. Such anomalies are rare but not unprecedented in the region.
The bearish case is supported by Buenos Aires' historical climate data, where June is winter and average high temperatures are around 14-15°C. Persistent cold fronts, La Niña conditions, or cloud cover could suppress temperatures further, making 17°C highly improbable.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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