This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZ. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Key risk: data_revision_uncertainty
AI updated 6/27/2026, 3:15:39 AM
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZ. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd Consensus
14%
ORYN Consensus
15%
Signal Score
+0.5
Opportunity
0.4
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The prediction market indicates a low probability (14.50%) that Buenos Aires will record a highest temperature of 11°C on June 28, 2026, based on historical climate data and seasonal trends for the region.
A bullish scenario could materialize if an unusual cold snap or polar vortex event affects southern South America in late June 2026, leading to unseasonably low temperatures in Buenos Aires. Unverified anecdotal reports or early seasonal forecasts suggesting cooler-than-average conditions could also drive speculative interest.
The bear case suggests a high likelihood of warmer-than-expected temperatures due to regional climate trends, with Buenos Aires typically experiencing average highs of 14-16°C in late June. Persistent El Niño conditions or local urban heat island effects could further elevate temperatures beyond 11°C.
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Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 28? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 14.5% while ORYN AI estimates 15%.
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