Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Measurement rounding to whole degrees could cause near-miss outcomes (e.g., 8.5°C or 9.4°C recorded as 9°C)
Calibrated 100% · raw 4250% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 7/3/2026, 1:33:39 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| omniroute | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 30% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
8%
ORYN Consensus
50%
Signal Score
+42.5
Opportunity
27.6
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
correlates · strength 60%
r3
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
3,179,869
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 4250.0¢
Entry: 4-10
—
Resolution
23h
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZ. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
This market asks whether the highest temperature in Buenos Aires on July 4, 2026, will be exactly 9°C. Given that July average highs in Buenos Aires are around 15°C, an exact temperature of 9°C is plausible but unlikely, reflected in the current probability of 7.5%.
Cold fronts during Buenos Aires winter can push daytime highs below 10°C, and the resolution rounds to whole degrees, so 9°C is a possible outcome. If the current probability underestimates the likelihood of a strong cold snap, the market could move higher toward 15-20%.
Historical data suggests that highs exactly at 9°C are rare; most winter days in Buenos Aires have highs between 12°C and 18°C. Moreover, weather forecasting for a specific date months ahead is highly uncertain, making the current low probability reasonable or even too high.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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